“99%准确率”悖论：基础率谬误如何扭曲我们对新闻、安全与统计的认知

The “99 Percent Accuracy” Paradox How the base rate fallacy distorts our view of news, safety and statistics BY JACK MURTAGH YOU HAVE PROBABLY encountered the base rate fallacy, and it probably fooled you. Part mathematical paradox and part cognitive bias, this mental oversight has surprisingly forceful things to say about many real-world situations, from our public health policy to mass-surveillance programs. Take, for instance, the following two puzzles. The first comes from the late psychologist Daniel Kahneman’s popular science book Thinking, Fast and Slow: An individual has been described by a neighbor as follows: “Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with little interest in people or in the world of reality. …