对冲厄尔尼诺不等于适应厄尔尼诺

Record-setting warm waters slosh eastward across the tropical Pacific, forming El Niño. This recurrent climate pattern reconfigures severe weather worldwide, and with it, the global economy. Scientists have forecast El Niño for decades, but never one this strong. Financial markets are responding rationally, minimizing their exposure in the regions most at risk. But hedging is not the same as adapting. At best, its dollar logic obscures El Niño’s human costs, and at worst, it pulls capital from the very places that need investment most. Two studies put global income losses from the 1997 El Niño at $2.1 trillion after 3 years and $5.7 trillion after 5, more than a hundred times a previous World Bank estimate. …