严谨不等于就绪：基于证据的政策PERL框架

Policy Evidence Readiness Levels help decision-makers assess evidence maturity and uncertainty Christopher Cotton1,2,3 Over the past three decades, the open-science movement and economics’ credibility revolution have brought the rigorous methods of clinical trials to the social and behavioral sciences (1, 2). Better evidence should drive better policy. Yet interventions with promising effects in early studies routinely have little, no, or even negative impact when scaled (3). Often, an initial study is treated as proof that “it works,” even when substantial uncertainty remains. The social and behavioral sciences adopted rigorous methods from clinical medicine but missed a deeper lesson that a mature, cumulative evidence base, rather than any individual study, should be the standard for informing policy. …