厄尔尼诺已至，或为本世纪最强

After clearing a spring forecasting hurdle, scientists see growing odds of a powerful climate event that could disrupt weather worldwide HANNAH RICHTER I n March, Nat Johnson, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, saw a startling prediction emerge from his earth system model. Designed to forecast El Niño—the wide-reaching climate pattern driven by unusually warm waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—the model projected the second strongest event since 1991. If the forecast holds, NOAA projects that tropical Pacific waters may warm 2.4°C by November, pumping heat and moisture into the atmosphere and disrupting weather patterns worldwide. …